Award picks

As a follow up to my lists of award contenders, here are my picks for the major individual awards.

Hart (MVP)

Winner: Crosby

Runners up: Getzlaf, Giroux, Pavelski, Kopitar

Stats comparison

Crosby runs away with this one. His 103 points is gaudy in today’s NHL and he played most often with non-stars Kunitz, Dupuis, and Stempniak. He played a huge number of minutes, drew penalties, played against the other team’s best — he did it all. Pavelski may be a surprise on the runners up list, but he really shouldn’t: he scored 40 goals, was strong defensively, and played in all situations.

Vezina (top goalie)

Winner: Rask

Runners up: Varlamov, Price, Bobrovsky, Bishop

Stats comparison

This was a tight choice between Rask and Varlamov but I gave the edge to Rask’s better 5-on-5 save percentage. (Assessing goalies is always difficult.)

Calder (top rookie)

Winner: MacKinnon

Runners up: Palat, Johnson, Trouba, Krug

Stats comparison

MacKinnon lead all contenders in points, shots, and penalty differential, but this wasn’t an easy selection. I can see cases for Palat with his excellent production on tough minutes or Trouba for doing well while forgoing the sheltered minutes usually given to rookie defencemen.

Norris (top defenceman)

Winner: Giordano

Runners up: Weber, Karlsson, Suter, Niskanen

Stats comparison

The only thing that made this a tough call for Giordano was the time he missed. He had sparkling numbers (+13% GF% rel and +10% CF% rel) while playing the toughest minutes in all situations on a bad team. Some may be surprised with Niskanen as a runner up but he performed very well playing mostly with a rookie (Maatta) and two boat anchors (Scuderi and Engelland). Despite not playing as many minutes as other D his +30 5-on-5 goal differential is best among Norris contenders.

Selke (top defensive forward)

Winner: Kopitar

Runners up: Bergeron, Getzlaf, Toews, Little

Stats comparison

This was a two-horse race between Bergeron and Kopitar. What pushed me over towards Kopitar is his higher quality of competition, more ice time (3 mins/game), and ridiculous +20% GF% rel. Just to spell that last point out: while he was on the ice at 5 on 5, the Kings scored 56 goals and allowed 25 (69%). While he was on the bench, they were 75-78 (49%). It doesn’t hurt that he also had 70 points.

4 thoughts on “Award picks

  1. I am maybe a bit surprised Vlasic didn’t show up on the Norris list. (I am a Sharks fan, so this is admittedly a bit of a homer comment)

    His quality of competition is right between Karlsson and Suter, yet he maintained a higher CF% than both of them. Vlasic’s O/DSt% ratio would be the only other ratio lower than Giordano’s, were Vlasic included on the list of candidates.

    Vlasic’s offensive numbers are nowhere near as prolific as the others, so it’s understandable that takes away from his consideration. But, Vlasic spent only 12.3% of his TOI on the powerplay, whereas everyone else posted numbers above 50% (Giordano spent 67.6% of his TOI on the powerplay).

    If you look at 5v5 offensive numbers, the gap closes a bit. At 5v5, Vlasic scored only 3 fewer points than Suter, and 8 fewer points than Weber. I understand giving Giordano the nod, given he would’ve been the second-highest scoring defensemen on that lis at 5v5 had he played 82 games (and kept his 64-game point pace).

    Vlasic’s GF% is also only lower than Niskanen’s numbers. GF% Rel only lower than Giordano and Niskanen.

    There are probably a few other d-men you could’ve included in your nominations, as well, but I just thought I’d try to make a case for Pickles.

    1. Vlasic is right behind my top 5 for Norris. The only knocks against him are, as you mentioned, offense and ice time, which may come together. If you look at the contenders comparison his 24 points are by far the lowest and his TOI/60 is low too, even at even strength. His possession and usage are definitely comparable.

      Note that Vlasic’s PPTm% of 12% means he plays 12% of the Sharks’ PP time, not that 12% of his time is on the PP.

      1. Ahhh, gotcha. Thank you for the clarification re: reading the PP%. That reasoning makes sense. Just wanted to throw in my $.02, and make sure I was understanding everything correctly.

        Thanks

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